US Senate Landscape: 2025-2026

States we are supporting in this cycle are circled.

Hardest Democratic Holds (In Order of Declining Trump Vote Share)

GEORGIA, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA): Aside from re-electing Sen. Warnock in 2022, Republicans have done well in Georgia in the last two elections; Stacey Abrams lost a rematch with Brian Kemp and in 2024 the state went to Trump. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 50.7% / Harris 48.5%

  • Term-limited Brian Kemp (R) is a favorite challenger to Ossoff.

  • Rep. Buddy Carter (R and author of the “Red, White, and Blueland” legislation) and rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R and MAGA extremist) may also enter the Republican primary. 

MICHIGAN, Open Seat (vacated by Democrat): In 2024, after Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced she would not seek re-election, then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin narrowly beat Republican Rep. Mike Rogers to become the junior Senator even as Trump won the state. It was a costly win, as her US House seat flipped Republican. In early 2026, Sen. Gary Peters announced he would not run for re-election in 2026. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 49.7% / Harris 48.3%

  • Dem. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has said she will not run for the seat. 

  • Rep. Mike Rogers (R), Rep. Haley Stevens (D), and State Senator Mallory McMarrow (D) are considering runs. Sec. Pete Buttigieg (D) has said he will not run.

NEW HAMPSHIRE, Open Seat (vacated by Democrat): Jeanne Shaheen’s decision to retire makes New Hampshire’s open US Senate seat likely highly contested. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 47.9% / Harris 50.7%

  • Possible Republican challengers could be former Gov. Chris Sununu or former Sen. Scott Brown. Current Gov. Kelly Ayotte has said she will not run. 

  • Possible Democratic challengers could be Rep. Maggie Goodlander or Rep. Chris Pappas.

MINNESOTA, Open Seat (vacated by Democrat): In mid-February 2026, Sen. Tina Smith announced she would not run for re-election in 2026. Numerous candidates are eyeing the seat and will update as contenders emerge.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 46.7% / Harris 50.9%

Hardest Republican Holds (In Order of Increasing Trump Vote Share)

MAINE, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME): In 2020, Susan Collins survived a challenge even as Biden carried the state. It is unclear if voters will continue to split their ballots or if Democrats will be better-positioned during the 2026 mid-term election. Maine is the only state with a Republican Senator where Kamala Harris was victorious.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 45.5%/ Harris 52.4%

NORTH CAROLINA, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC): Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 2008. In 2020 Tills narrowly avoided losing when opponent Cal Cunningham’s extra-marital affair became public.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 50.9% / Harris 47.6%

  • In 2026 Tillis will face the headwinds of the Trump presidency as well as likely challenger in popular two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D).

ALASKA, Dan Sullivan (R-AK): An anti-abortion Senator in a heavily pro-choice state, Sullivan faces his first post-Dobbs election in a state that can break its partisan mold. In 2022 midterms, Alaskans elected Mary Peltola (D) along with the most anti-Trump Republican Senator currently serving, Lisa Murkowski (R). In 2024, in response to the veto of education funding by its Republican governor, Alaskans elected coalition legislative majorities in both chambers composed of Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 54.4% / Harris 41.4%

  • The At-Large Alaska US House seat flipped Republican in 2024 and will be a top Democratic target in 2026. 

OHIO, Open Seat (vacated by Republican): The Senate seat is currently held by Jon Husted (R) who was appointed to fill Sen. JD Vance’s seat. In 2024, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) was unable to overcome the argument that a vote for him was a vote against Trump, losing by 4 percentage points.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 55.1% / Harris 43.9%

  • 2026: Without Trump on the ballot, Husted may be upset by the right opposition. 

IOWA, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA): In recent cycles Democrats have wavered between 43%-45% of the vote. Ernst will be in jeopardy if an opponent can replicate Jon Tester’s or Dan Osborn’s overperformance.  

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 55.7% / Harris 42.5%

  • Competitive US House races in Districts 1 and 3, which cover half of Iowa, are potential Republican defeats and likely to also attract organizing and resources. 

FLORIDA, Open Seat (vacated by Republican): Former Atty. Gen. Ashley Moody has been appointed to Sen. Marco Rubio’s vacated seat. Florida’s continued movement towards MAGA may mean this Senate race is largely uncontested.

TEXAS, Sen. Jon Cornyn (R-TX): Sen. Cornyn may face a MAGA primary challenger in Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R). A nasty primary, combined with Trump backlash and the right opposition candidate, could spell trouble for Republican control of this seat. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 56.1% / Harris 42.5%

  • 2026: Rep. Henry Cuellar is a Texas Democrat who has consistently won crossover voters due to his successful bipartisanship in Congress and support for restrictions on abortions. A big-tent, conservative, blue-dog Democratic is likely the best model for flipping this seat.

Last updated on 2025 February 26.