Building a Durable Senate Majority Means Winning in Red States
Four Key Facts About The Senate Map
Ninety-five percent of current U.S. Senators are from the same party as the presidential candidate who won in their state. In 2020, Biden and Trump each carried 25 states.
The current Democratic majority rests on three exceptional individuals who broke through this partisan dominance. They are Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT), and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), all from states Trump carried. Sen. Manchin announced his retirement in November 2023, and it is unlikely that West Virginians will vote to replace him with another Democrat.
Republicans hold on to a formidable minority because Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) were reelected despite Biden’s victories in their states.
As of March 2024, the Democrats will need to win three US Senate seats in the November 2024 general election in order to secure a durable majority. Two of those seats currently belong to Brown and Tester, each of whom is fighting for a fourth term.
2024 Senate Investment Opportunities
Without securing a Senate majority, Democrats will lose the ability to pass legislation and make judicial, military, or agency appointments. Arguably, our nation will become ungovernable even if we hold the U.S. House and Presidency. The only path forward is early and strategic investment in setting the conditions for these two exceptional senators to win.
Early signs suggest that these candidates are fundraising at an impressive rate. But, as we saw in states like Georgia and Michigan and Arizona, there are important sets of voters who cannot be effectively reached by the candidates or the party. The independent programs that engage these demographics generate the winning margin and are most likely to be underfunded.
Our mission is to reach folks who, like these Senators, will break their state’s partisan mold of generic disagreement with and distrust of Democrats.
Investing Early for 2026 Senate Investment Opportunities
The only option for securing a stable, working Democratic majority is more exceptional blue candidates from red states. In 2026, there are three potential Democratic candidates who can build winning, statewide coalitions in states Trump carried in 2016 and 2020: Gov. Roy Cooper from North Carolina, Rep. Sharice Davids from Kansas, and Rep. Mary Peltola from Alaska. We need to invest early in building the political infrastructure in these states now to win these races in 2026.