US Senate Landscape: 2025-2026

States we are supporting in this cycle are circled.

Hardest Democratic Holds (In Order of Declining Trump Vote Share)

GEORGIA, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA): Aside from re-electing Sen. Warnock in 2022, Republicans have done well in Georgia in the last two elections; Stacey Abrams lost a Governor’s race rematch with Brian Kemp and in 2024 the state went to Trump. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 50.7% / Harris 48.5%

  • Top recruit Governor Brian Kemp (R) declined to enter the race.

  • Rep. Buddy Carter (R and author of the “Red, White, and Blueland” legislation) and rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R and MAGA extremist) may also enter the Republican primary. 

MICHIGAN, Open Seat (vacated by Democrat): In 2024, after Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced she would not seek re-election, then-Rep. Elissa Slotkin narrowly beat Republican Rep. Mike Rogers to become the junior Senator even as Trump won the state. It was a costly win, as her US House seat flipped Republican. In early 2026, Sen. Gary Peters announced he would not run for re-election in 2026. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 49.7% / Harris 48.3%

  • Dem. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Sec. Pete Buttigieg have said they will not run for the seat. 

  • Rep. Mike Rogers (R), Rep. Haley Stevens (D), and State Senator Mallory McMarrow (D) are running.

NEW HAMPSHIRE, Open Seat (vacated by Democrat): Jeanne Shaheen’s decision to retire makes New Hampshire’s open US Senate seat likely highly contested. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 47.9% / Harris 50.7%

  • Republican candidates are former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown and New Hampshire State Senator Dan Innis. Current Gov. Kelly Ayotte and former Gov. Chris Sununu have declined to run. 

  • Democratic challenger Rep. Chris Pappas has cleared the Democratic field and currently has an uncontested primary.

MINNESOTA, Open Seat (vacated by Democrat): In mid-February 2026, Sen. Tina Smith announced she would not run for re-election in 2026. Numerous candidates are eyeing the seat and will update as contenders emerge.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 46.7% / Harris 50.9%

  • Democratic candidates include U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, and former State Senate Minority Leader Melisa Franzen.

  • Republican candidates include Royce White, 2024 Republican Senate Nominee, and Adam Shwarze, retired Navy Seal.

Hardest Republican Holds (In Order of Increasing Trump Vote Share)

MAINE, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME): In 2020, Susan Collins survived a challenge even as Biden carried the state. It is unclear if voters will continue to split their ballots or if Democrats will be better-positioned during the 2026 mid-term election. Maine is the only state with a Republican Senator where Kamala Harris was victorious.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 45.5%/ Harris 52.4%; Primary June 9, 2026.

  • Gov. Janet Mills is the top Democratic recruit to challenge Collins.

NORTH CAROLINA, Open Seat (vacated by Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC)): Democrats have not won a Senate seat since 2008. In 2020 Tills narrowly avoided losing when opponent Cal Cunningham’s extra-marital affair became public.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 50.9% / Harris 47.6%; Primary March 3, Runoff May 12, 2026.

  • Republican candidates might include President Trump’s daughter-in-law (Lara Trump), and chair of the National Republican Committee (Michael Whatley), as well as members of the North Carolina’s Congressional delegation.

  • The Democratic candidate is most likely popular two-term Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC). If Cooper declines and without Tillis in the race some see popular Attorney General Jeff Jackson as the top recruit. Former US House member Wiley Nickel has declared, but will drop out of Cooper runs.

ALASKA, Dan Sullivan (R-AK): An anti-abortion Senator in a heavily pro-choice state, Sullivan faces his first post-Dobbs election in a state that can break its partisan mold. In 2022 midterms, Alaskans elected Mary Peltola (D) along with the most anti-Trump Republican Senator currently serving, Lisa Murkowski (R). In 2024, in response to the veto of education funding by its Republican governor, Alaskans elected coalition legislative majorities in both chambers composed of Democrats, Independents, and moderate Republicans. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 54.4% / Harris 41.4%; Primary August 18, 2026.

  • The At-Large Alaska US House seat flipped Republican in 2024 and will be a top Democratic target in 2026. Candidates are waiting on Mary Peltola to decide if she’ll run for Governor or Senate.

OHIO, Open Seat (vacated by Republican): The Senate seat is currently held by Jon Husted (R) who was appointed to fill Sen. JD Vance’s seat. In 2024, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) was unable to overcome the argument that a vote for him was a vote against Trump, losing by 4 percentage points.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 55.1% / Harris 43.9%; Primary May 5, 2026.

  • 2026: Without Trump on the ballot, Husted may be upset by the right opposition. 

IOWA, Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA): In recent cycles Democrats have wavered between 43%-45% of the vote. Ernst will be in jeopardy if an opponent can replicate Jon Tester’s or Dan Osborn’s overperformance.  

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 55.7% / Harris 42.5%; Primary June 2, 2026.

  • Competitive US House races in Districts 1 and 3, which cover half of Iowa, are potential Republican defeats and likely to also attract organizing and resources. 

  • Democratic challengers include Nathan Sage, a military veteran and small-business advocate, Iowa State Senator Zach Wahls, and Iowa State Representative and former US House Nominee, J.D. Scholten

FLORIDA, Open Seat (vacated by Republican): Former Atty. Gen. Ashley Moody has been appointed to Sen. Marco Rubio’s vacated seat. Florida’s continued movement towards MAGA may mean this Senate race is largely uncontested.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 56.1% / Harris 43.0%; Primary August 18, 2026.

  • The April 1st special elections for two House seats vacated by Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz showed nearly 20 point swings to Democratic voters, possibly keying up a competitive 2026 Senate race in Florida.

TEXAS, Sen. Jon Cornyn (R-TX): Sen. Cornyn faces a MAGA primary challenger in Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton (R). A nasty primary, combined with Trump backlash and the right opposition candidate, could spell trouble for Republican control of this seat. 

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 56.1% / Harris 42.5%; Primary March 3, Runoff May 26, 2026.

  • 2026: Rep. Henry Cuellar is a Texas Democrat who has consistently won crossover voters due to his successful bipartisanship in Congress and support for restrictions on abortions. A big-tent, conservative, blue-dog Democratic is likely the best model for flipping this seat.

  • Democratic challengers include former US Representative and 2024 US Senate Nominee Colin Allred, and retired astronaut Terry Virts.

NEBRASKA, Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-NE): Sen. Ricketts faces Independent Candidate Dan Osborn, who challenged Deb Fischer in the 2024 Senate election.

  • 2024 Presidential Election: Trump 59.3% / Harris 38.9%; Primary May 12, 2026.

  • In 2024 Dan Osborn over-performed better-funded candidates leading to renewed interest in Independent candidates challenging Republicans in red states. In 2026 Osborn hopes to secure earlier funding and unseat Ricketts in a battle between the union mechanic and son of billionaires.