Why Invest in the 2026 Alaska Senate Race?
The Senate and the 2026 Midterms
The 2026 midterms present us with a significant opportunity to weaken the Trump administration; bringing enough Democrats into the US Senate to put them the majority would be the coup de grâce.
Historically, the party in power during midterms always loses ground—it’s happened in 20 of the 22 last midterm elections. What may turn 2026 into more of a “wave election,” in which the Democrats make significant gains in both Houses, is the fact that Trump himself will not be on the ballot (fewer of his voters will turn out) and his disapproval rating among even members of his own party is significant.
Without winning the Senate back, Democrats and allies can only play defense against MAGA even if they win the Presidency and House in 2028. A MAGA Senate will be able to block all legislation and all nominations. In 2007, the Obama campaign’s mantra for every decision was, “Does this help win the Iowa Caucuses?” Today, all those opposed to MAGA must ask, “Does this help win the Senate?” Given the six-year terms of Senators, the 2026 midterms will likely determine the ability of a post-Trump Democratic President to appoint judges for the entirety of their first four year-term.
Where Does Alaska Fit on the 2026 Senate Map?
Alaska and Ohio are tied for “most-likely tipping-point state.” Trump won both by similar margins, +11 points in Ohio and +13 points in Alaska, and both of their marquee Democrats, Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola, greatly outperformed Kamala Harris.
Democrats need to hold their own seats and gain four to flip the Senate. Maine and North Carolina are at the top of that list, as Harris won in Maine by +7 points and lost North Carolina by a scant -3 points. In addition, Democrats are competing for the open Senate seat in Iowa, which Trump won by +13 points, and in Texas, where the competitive GOP primary may create an opening in a state Trump won by +14 points.
Unique to Alaska, senior Senator Lisa Murkowski is a traditional Republican and occasional Trump critic. Flipping Alaska’s Senate seat would be a new data point for all Alaskan politicians and may favorably influence her votes on key pieces of legislation and judicial nominations.
Although Mary Peltola has not announced her intention to run for Senate or Governor, political investors can consider Alaska analogous to Ohio as both are equally likely to turn from red to blue.
Who is Dan Sullivan and How Vulnerable is He?
US Senator Dan Sullivan flipped this seat by 6,014 votes in the Republican wave election of 2014. He now faces his first midterm with Trump in the White House, the Dobbs decision behind him, and a very energized Democratic electorate in front of him. The wealthy grandson of an industrial materials magnate, he continues to disappoint Alaskans on key issues by
voting against the release of the Epstein files;
cutting Medicaid to give tax-breaks to himself and the ultra-wealthy; and
arguing against reproductive rights in a very pro-choice Alaska.
Who Will Challenge Dan Sullivan?
Democrat Mary Peltola is expected to announce if she’ll run for US Senate or Alaska Governor. In 2022, she won the statewide, At-Large, US House seat left vacant by the passing of Dan Young, and in back-to-back upset victories (special election on Aug. 6, 2022; regular election on Nov. 8, 2022) she beat both Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III.
What is the Early Polling?
Two polls put Sullivan in a statistical tie for re-election. Newsweek reported a July poll that showed Sullivan with a one-point lead in a hypothetical race against Mary Peltola, 46% to 45%, but that is mitigated by a four-point margin of error. The 907 Initiative commissioned a poll in July and August and found that 49% of Alaskans want to replace Sullivan while 43% want to re-elect him, but this is also a statistical tie given the poll’s 3.5% margin of error (reference available upon request).
Updated October 1, 2025