Battle Plan for 2025
Updated 2025 February
Executive Summary
Senate Circle seeks to connect donors with a multi-year, state-based strategy for a durable U.S. Senate majority. We select states based on analysis of past elections and are guided by in-state partners for specific investments. Our focus is primarily on Democratic “crossover” Senate states, which are states that Trump won in 2020 but could elect a Democratic senator. Recognizing that winning a Senate seat in these states is difficult, we invest early and broadly. For the 2024 Senate elections, we are investing in Montana and Ohio. For the 2026 Senate elections, we are investing in Alaska, Kansas, Montana, and North Carolina.
If you want to be part of a sustained effort that shifts away from cycle-to-cycle fundraising to make consistent, long-term investments that change history, we hope you will join us.
The Importance of the Senate
The U.S. Senate both passes legislation and confirms over 1,200 presidential appointments, including those in the judiciary. Without control of the Senate, a Democratic president cannot appoint preferred choices to the judiciary or advance a legislative agenda. Conversely, a Democratic Senate is a vital check on a Republican president’s agenda and power.
The Senate is Much Harder to Win than the U.S. House and Electoral College
For Democrats to win the U.S. House, they need to win only in districts that Biden carried in 2020. For Kamala Harris to be elected president, she needs to win the electoral college votes in 23 of the 25 states that Biden won in 2020. But for Kamala Harris to have a 50-50 Democratic Senate “majority,” she needs senators from 27 states, including all 25 states Biden won in 2020 plus two from states Trump won. For an outright majority, she needs Senators from a minimum of 28 states, including at least three states that Trump won in 2020.
We Need Crossover Senators Who Break a State’s Partisan Lean to Hold the Senate
The US Senate is composed of 100 Senators, two from each of the 50 states, who are elected to six-year terms. Currently, 95 of the 100 Senators are of the same party as their state’s Presidential vote in 2020. In 2020, Biden won 25 states and Trump won 25 states. There’s no path to Senate majority without Democratic crossover Senators from states Trump won in 2020.
Early and Consistent Support to In-state Groups is Needed to Flip a Senate Seat
In-state groups, like donor alliances, build the runway to flip Senate seats. Donor alliances and Democratic parties invest in the long-term power-building that can flip a US Senate seat as we saw in Georgia in 2020. In-state groups are the best vehicles for holding Senators accountable on positions unpopular in their states, expanding the electorate through registering voters, and engaging citizens in civic life leading up to Senate elections.
Early In-State Support Helps Make Election Cycle Funding Successful
Candidates and the two major Senate-focused groups, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and the Senate Majority PAC, focus on the current election cycle’s media buys and some get-out-the-vote field operations. These are necessary but insufficient efforts to flip a Senate seat in a state that leans Republican. Without a long-term in-state effort, even practically limitless cyclical resources are likely to fail. Early money helps in-state groups undertake necessary advance work like hiring top notch leadership, conducting research on messaging, and recruiting and training down-ballot candidates. This work both attracts the massive election cycle resources and makes these efforts more effective.
The Five Possible Paths to a US Senate Majority in a Second Biden Term and Beyond
Flip the last two Republican senators in Democratic states: Susan Collins (R-ME) in 2026 and Ron Johnson (R-WI) in 2028.
Hold competitive Democratic Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2024, and then Georgia in 2026.
Re-elect the exceptional crossover senators in 2024: Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Jon Tester (D-MT).
Expand Democrats’ victory to a 26th state in 2024, North Carolina, and flip their Senate seats in 2026 and 2028.
Invest early to cultivate new crossover senators for 2026. Our analysis of past elections suggests that the most likely states to elect crossover senators voted less than 57 percent for Trump in 2020, have elected Democrats to prominent state-wide office, and strongly support abortion rights. Alaska, Kansas, and Montana meet these standards.
The Senate Circle Portfolio of States for the 2024 and 2026 Senate Elections
We believe that considerable resources will be devoted to the cyclical funding for the Senate races in states that Biden won, so our focus is on lanes three, four, and five, which are the tipping point states for a Democratic Senate majority.
2024: Montana and Ohio
2026: Alaska, Kansas, Montana, North Carolina
2028: To be evaluated after the 2024 elections
What about Florida and Texas in 2024?
These are very large and expensive states without recent statewide Democratic victories, and as such do not meet our criteria for using our limited resources.
What about Maine in 2026?
We anticipate this Senate races will attract considerable national attention and support. We are focusing our efforts in places that are less likely to see early investments.
Our Investments
We work with in-state partners to determine the needs for donor support, recognizing that flipping a US Senate seat is a monumental accomplishment that builds upon the work of many organizations and individuals. Toward that end, we are willing to support down-ballot candidates, in-state communication groups, state and county Democratic parties, and voter registration and mobilization efforts when that can leverage a Senate victory.
Summary
Donors who want a durable Senate majority can help elect a small number of crossover Senators from states that lean Republican. To win in these few states, Democrats need to make long-term substantial investments in in-state groups prior to massive election cycle efforts.
One path to the Senate majority for Kamala Harris’s first term runs through Ohio and Montana in 2024 and flipping at least one of Alaska, Kansas, Montana, or North Carolina in 2026.
For specific investment opportunities, please contact us or stay on our email list for upcoming fundraisers.
