Why Invest in the 2026 US Senate Race in Alaska?
Where does Alaska fit on the 2026 Senate map?
Alaska and Ohio are tied for “most-likely tipping-point state.” Trump won both by similar margins, +11 points in Ohio and +13 points in Alaska, and both of their marquee Democrats, Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola, greatly outperformed Kamala Harris.
Democrats need to hold their own seats and gain four to flip the Senate. Maine and North Carolina are at the top of that list, as Harris won in Maine by +7 points and lost North Carolina by a scant -3 points. In addition, Democrats are competing for the open Senate seat in Iowa, which Trump won by +13 points, and in Texas, where the competitive GOP primary may create an opening in a state Trump won by +14 points.
Unique to Alaska, senior Senator Lisa Murkowski is a traditional Republican and occasional Trump critic. Flipping Alaska’s Senate seat would be a new data point for all Alaskan politicians and may favorably influence her votes on key pieces of legislation and judicial nominations.
In January 2026, Mary Peltola announced her run for US Senate.
Who is Dan Sullivan and how vulnerable is he?
US Senator Dan Sullivan flipped this seat by 6,014 votes in the Republican wave election of 2014. He now faces his first midterm with Trump in the White House, the Dobbs decision behind him, and a very energized Democratic electorate in front of him. The wealthy grandson of an industrial materials magnate, he continues to disappoint Alaskans on key issues by cutting Medicaid to give tax-breaks to himself and the ultra-wealthy, and arguing against reproductive rights in a very pro-choice Alaska.
Who is Democratic challenger Mary Peltola?
Former Alaska legislator Democrat Mary Peltola won the statewide At-large US House seat left vacant by the passing of Dan Young. In back-to-back upset victories in 2022 (special election on Aug. 6, 2022 and regular election on Nov. 8, 2022) she beat both Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III. In 2024, she narrowly lost to Nick Begich. She is an energetic and charismatic Alaska Native with a campaign slogan of “Fish, Family, and Freedom” who has staked out the middle ground. We’ve been supporting her since her run in 2022, and now it seems the rest of the country is taking notice as well. In a recent New York Times op-ed, Michelle Cottle noted that “Suddenly, Alaska Is in Play” (2026 Jan 4).
What is the early polling?
Consistent with earlier polls, a January 2026 poll puts Sullivan in a statistical tie for re-election. Newsweek reported a July poll that showed Sullivan with a one-point lead in a hypothetical race against Mary Peltola, 46% to 45%, but that is mitigated by a four-point margin of error. The 907 Initiative commissioned a poll in July and August and found that 49% of Alaskans want to replace Sullivan while 43% want to re-elect him, but this is also a statistical tie given the poll’s 3.5% margin of error (reference available upon request).
Updated 2026 January 18