Why Invest in the 2026 US Senate Race in Iowa?

Where does Iowa fit on the 2026 Senate map?

A dollar spent in Iowa can reach more voters who are deciding more races than almost anywhere. Iowa has the fifth cheapest media market (behind Alaska, Maine, Montana, and Nebraska) and has a stacked ballot for Democratic flips: Governor, US Senator, 3 out of 4 US Representatives, and a host of state-level seats.

Republicans are vulnerable because of how Independents and swing voters are being impacted by Trump’s legislative agenda in these key areas:

  • Agriculture & Trade: Iowa has been hit hard by Trump’s gamesmanship with tariffs, which are damaging exports and raising costs. (“Trump Tariffs Add Costs.” Des Moines Register, 2026 Feb 19.)

  • Immigration: Stricter immigration policies have exacerbated worker shortages in rural areas, and there have been cuts to SNAP food assistance for thousands of legal immigrants. (Iowa Relies on Immigrants. Iowa Public Radio, 2026 Feb 10.)

  • Energy: Federal actions and phased-out tax credits have introduced uncertainty into the state's wind energy sector. (In Trump-Friendly Iowa, the President’s Policies Have Hit Hard. New York Times, 2025 Oct 27.)

  • Healthcare: Trump’s budget has led to Medicaid cuts, the introduction of work requirements, and rising costs on the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace.

The single strength that Republicans have going into this cycle—and it is a big one—has to do with voter registration: “Democrats still have a 200,000 person deficit in statewide voter registration and they are outnumbered in every house district. Sand, along with Senate candidate Josh Turek, say they can win over independents and Republicans who are frustrated with party politics and a republican trifecta in Washington and Des Moines they that they blame for the state's challenges.” (The Oakland Press. Pontiac, MI, 2026, p. 5. America’s News, Accessed 9 June 2026.)

However, on primary night 192,317 Democrats voted alongside 206,582 Republicans, almost closing the registration gap with an enthusiasm advantage. With 588,009 registered Independents who couldn’t vote in Iowa’s closed primaries, Democratic turnout and winning over Independents and moderate Republicans is the path to victory.

For more on the numbers, please see our page on the US Senate Landscape: 2025-2026.

Who is Ashley Hinson and how vulnerable is she?

Ashley Hinson is a former news anchor and current US Representative from Iowa’s 2nd District. She is a staunch Trump supporter. If you Google “ashley hinson getting booed at town halls,” your results list will yield pages and pages of links to videos and news stories attesting to Iowans’ distaste for her fierce MAGA loyalty. For that endurance, she was rewarded by Trump with his endorsement in September 2025 shortly after she declared her candidacy.

As of this writing she has raised a great deal more than Turek has, but now that Democrats have cleared the field it is expected that he will soon catch up.

Here is a piece from the NYT about her strengths and vulnerabilities: “5 Things to Know About Ashley Hinson.” (New York Times, 2026 June 02)

Who is Josh Turek?

In March 2022, Josh Turek returned from a worldwide medal-winning streak as a wheelchair basketball player and decided to run for the seat in District 20 of Iowa’s state legislature. This district has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1968, but he won by six votes and was re-elected in 2024.

In May 2025, sitting US Senator Joni Ernst rolled her eyes and told a townhall audience not to complain about cuts to Medicaid because “We all are going to die.” As noted in a piece by Mother Jones, “her popularity among moderates never recovered.”

In August 2025, Democrats won enough seats to break the Republican supermajority in the state senate and Turek announced his candidacy for US Senate. A few weeks later, Sen. Ernst announced she would not be seeking re-election.

And now, in June 2026, Josh Turek scores a decisive victory in the Democratic primary. He is widely acknowledged to be a moderate with crossover appeal for Republican voters who are turning away from Trump because of gas and fertilizer prices, tariffs, the closing of medical clinics, and a new war in the Middle East.

We believe that Josh Turek is in the vanguard of a statewide phenomenon. Iowa Democrats have a strong slate of candidates led by Turek and gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, as well as a host of promising down-ballot contests. Axios postulates that Democrats in Iowa are poised to make “[a rural blue comeback]” in the Fall.

For more about his boyhood and life before politics, watch “Underdog,” his campaign video.

What is the current polling?

Iowa has been a reliably red state since taking a turn in the 1960s. Prior to the 2026 June 02 Democratic primary all polls pointed to a Republican victory, but in the aftermath of Turek’s victory the pollsters are pulling back a bit. The Daily Beast reports that conservative Karl Rove is sounding the alarm, and the Cook Political Report has moved Iowa out of “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”

Politico reports a June 8-11 poll showing Ashley Hinson at 45% (‘coincidentally’ Trump’s Iowa favorability is also 45%) and Turek at 47% with 8% undecided.

Updated 2026 June 24