Why Invest in the 2026 US Senate Race in Nebraska?

Where does Nebraska fit on the 2026 Senate map?

Nebraska is in play in 2026. While the state has been reliably Republican (supporting the Republican Presidential candidate in every election except one since 1940), it has decidedly progressive agrarian roots. Agriculture is the backbone of Nebraska’s economy, and Trump policies have devastated the agriculture community in the rural Midwest. Farm bankruptcies were up 30% in Nebraska in 2025, mirroring a national trend. In addition, Trump budget cuts have resulted in closures of rural health clinics and hospitals in the state.

Against this backdrop, Independent Dan Osborn is running against Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts. Osborn rose to prominence in 2024 when he came out of nowhere to run against incumbent Deb Fischer for the Senate seat. He lost but outperformed the Harris vs Trump margin by more than any Democratic Senate candidate that cycle. This time, Dan is running against a less popular incumbent at a time when Nebraskans are struggling and Trump is not on the ballot.

Flipping the majority in the US Senate requires winning four seats currently held by Republicans. Nebraska is among the six or seven states where that can happen.

Who is Don Osborn, the Independent candidate?

Dan Osborn is a life-long Independent. He’s a Navy veteran, served in the Nebraska National Guard, and has worked as an industrial mechanic since leaving the service. As union president, Dan led a successful strike at the Kellogg plant where he worked in 2021. His leadership was noticed and led to backing for a Senate run in 2024. Osborn’s platform has been called “paycheck populism,” emphasizing workers’ rights and kitchen table issues of affordability. His Nebraska Growth and Fairness Plan has detailed proposals on lowering health care costs and improving access, breaking up oligopolies, and reducing corruption and money in politics.

Running as an Independent, Osborn lacks some of the benefits that accrue to candidates who belong to a political party (e.g., fundraising help, political research). That said, he is endorsed by the Nebraska Democratic Party, which has cleared the field for him. He has the backing of the major labor unions in the state as well as endorsements from a range of national advocacy groups (e.g., Sierra Club, End Citizens United, Independent Veterans of America). The campaign has a strong ground game across the state, a visible and solid social media presence and well-produced ads.

Osborn is emphasizing his background in his campaign slogan: “It’s time to replace a billionaire with a mechanic.” At a time of significant economic dislocation, budget cuts affecting working families and cost of living increases, Osborn believes the time is ripe for change. Rickett’s vulnerabilities suggest he may well be right.

Who is Pete Ricketts and how vulnerable is he?

Pete Ricketts is the incumbent Republican Senator. He is wealthy by virtue of his father, Joe Ricketts, who founded TD Ameritrade. The billionaire Ricketts family owns the Chicago Cubs. Ricketts has used his family wealth to advance his political fortunes in Nebraska, where he served two terms as Governor and then was appointed Senator in 2023 by his successor, Governor Pillen, to replace the seat vacated by outgoing Senator Ben Sasse. Ricketts was elected in 2024 special election to finish out the term.

Ricketts has used his fortune to dominate Nebraska politics. According to one report, the Ricketts family spent $18.6 million on Nebraska political campaigns and causes over his dozen years as governor and Senator through 2024. That is estimated to be $1 out of every $11 spent in the state on candidates for state and federal offices and ballot initiatives. “The numbers startle,” said the former governor and U.S. Sen. Bob Kerrey, a Democrat, in a 2024 article. “At this level of giving … they may not own Nebraska politics but they seem to have a long-term lease.”

Where is Ricketts on the issues? He is very conservative and a lock-step supporter of President Trump, supporting the 2025 Big Beautiful Bill Act as well as Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies, both of which have negatively impacted farmers. He supports a total ban on abortion, favors ending affirmative action, and has supported the reversal of environmental protection regulations and laws.

For all his money and campaign spending, Rickett’s has an unfavorability rating of 52% and a net -9 percent unfavorability rating.

What is the early polling?

Not only can Osborn win, he is winning, according to recent polls. A Tavern Research poll in May had Osborn up by 5% over Ricketts. The race will be tight down to the wire, but Osborne’s performance is encouraging given that Ricketts has already spent millions in attack ads against Osborne. Also encouraging is that Osborn’s campaign raised more money than Ricketts in Q1 2026. This is more a reflection of popular support than actual resources since it doesn’t reflect super PAC, Republican party funds, and family resources available to help Ricketts.

Why Osborn and Why Nebraska in 2026?

The 2026 Midterms are a referendum on an unpopular President and policies which have reduced growth, led to higher inflation and increases in the cost of living, and put health care out of reach of millions. Out-of-control corruption, another forever war in the Middle East, and the Epstein files add to the list of failures by Republican leadership in Congress and the White House. Polling, 2025 elections, and 2026 primary results all point to an electorate desperate for change. Political pundits and pollsters are raising prospects of an expansion of the political map into red states by Democrats and Independents. The Nebraska Senate race is one of those in play.

We can win in Nebraska for a fraction of the cost of the big swing states. It’s estimated that campaign expenditures in Nebraska, Iowa, Montana and Alaska combined will be less than Ohio. Supporting Osborn’s Senate campaign offers one of the highest returns on your donor dollar.

Updated 2026 July 17